Near-Term Upside, Longer-Term Caution

Short term (1 week): Bullish

• S&P 500 set a new record; breadth and tech leadership improving.
• QQQ approaching breakout (needs 625.52; above 629 for confirmation), with price above key EMAs.
• Low VIX (~14.9) supports risk-on flow; SPY cleared minor downtrend.
• ISM services beat; Fed easing stance still supportive; pending home sales strong.
  

Long term (1+ months): Bearish bias

• Three-year S&P run near 90% with only five precedents; history shows drawdowns afterward (1956 bear, 1987 crash, late-90s secular bear, 2022).
• Wall Street consensus near-universal bullish—tactical contrarian risk.
• Underlying breadth mixed (ISM services headline strong but industry growth narrow; labor resilience contrasts with soft spots).
• Tech (QQQ) still coiling near resistance; sustained breakout needed to offset secular caution.